{"id":2967,"date":"2020-06-19T10:23:04","date_gmt":"2020-06-19T08:23:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trentinosalutedigitale.com\/blog\/2020\/06\/19\/r0-e-rt-il-contributo-di-fbk-allanalisi-dei-dati-sulla-diffusione-del-virus-sars-cov-2\/"},"modified":"2020-08-28T09:39:59","modified_gmt":"2020-08-28T07:39:59","slug":"r0-e-rt-il-contributo-di-fbk-allanalisi-dei-dati-sulla-diffusione-del-virus-sars-cov-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trentinosalutedigitale.com\/en\/blog\/r0-e-rt-il-contributo-di-fbk-allanalisi-dei-dati-sulla-diffusione-del-virus-sars-cov-2\/","title":{"rendered":"R0 and Rt: the contribution of FBK to the analysis of data on the spread of the SARS-COV-2 virus"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fondazione Bruno Kessler <\/strong>played an important role during this health emergency.In fact, its contribution in analyzing the data of the spread of the pandemic<\/strong> in close collaboration with the Italian National Institute of Health<\/strong> was critical.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Stefano Merler RICERCATORE FBK TRENTO<\/p><\/div>\n

The scholars of the “Dynamical Processes in Complex Societies<\/a><\/strong>“(DPCS) Unit, coordinated by <\/strong>Stefano Merler<\/strong><\/a>, <\/strong>started a collaboration with the Lombardy<\/strong> Region, the first and most affected in Italy and Europe, to estimate the transmissibility of SARS-COV-2 and assess the potential impact on the health system of an uncontrolled COVID-19 outbreak. In particular, the basic reproduction number<\/strong>, i.e. the average number of secondary infections generated by a single infected individual in a population that has never come into contact with the new pathogen (R0)<\/strong>, of an uncontrolled epidemic of COVID -19, in Lombardy was estimated at around R0=3<\/strong>. The serial interval<\/strong>, i.e. the distribution of the times between the onset of symptoms in a primary infector and the onset of symptoms in secondary cases<\/strong>, was estimated at around 6.6 days<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The Foundation, thanks to the studies of its researchers, also contributed to assessing the impact of COVID-19 on intensive care<\/strong> units in the Lombardy Region and to assessing the characteristics of patients<\/strong> admitted to intensive care.<\/p>\n

FBK researchers also helped study the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Italy<\/strong>. In particular, they provided daily estimates of the basic parameters<\/strong> that regulate the transmissibility of SARS-COV-2, such as “Rt”<\/strong>, which is the average number of secondary infections generated by a single infected individual during the epidemic<\/strong>, and which allows monitor the effectiveness of actions. Specifically, scholars helped show that the<\/strong>
\ntransmissibility of SARS-COV-2 (Rt) was less than 1 in all regions and almost all Italian provinces, <\/strong>This means a drop in infection cases before the end of March, i.e. less than three weeks after the start of the lockdown<\/em> on March 11. During this period, Rt<\/strong> went from about 3 to figures close to 0.6 in almost all regions.<\/p>\n

The Foundation also collaborated with the Technical-Scientific Committee by<\/strong> providing the analysis of scenarios to identify possible reopening strategies. <\/em>\u00a0“Even if we must always keep in mind” – Stefano<\/strong> Merler said – “that the knowledge on SARS-COV-2 is still scarce and many aspects – for example, the effectiveness of masks, social distancing, the effect of temperature on SARS-VOV-2 transmissibility – which will be crucial for “phase 2″, are not yet clear. ”<\/p>\n

Foundation researchers are now monitoring Phase 2, providing Rt <\/strong>estimates for all regions.<\/p>\n

Text by Stefano Merler<\/em><\/p>\n

> Read the interview with Stefano Merler in Corriere_Trentino_ (20jun20)<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fbk ha contribuito a dimostrare che la trasmissibilit\u00e0 di Sars-Cov-2 (Rt) era minore di 1 in tutte le regioni e in quasi tutte le province italiane meno di tre settimane dopo l\u2019inizio del lockdown<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2438,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[340,18],"tags":[369,441,442,354,443,444,445],"class_list":["post-2967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-covid19-en","category-news","tag-covid-19-en","tag-epidemiologia-quantitativa-en","tag-iss-en","tag-lombardia-en","tag-pandemia-en","tag-r0-en","tag-rt-en","post_format-post-format-image"],"yoast_head":"\nR0 and Rt: the contribution of FBK to the analysis of data on the spread of the SARS-COV-2 virus - TrentinoSalute4.0<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/trentinosalutedigitale.com\/blog\/r0-e-rt-il-contributo-di-fbk-allanalisi-dei-dati-sulla-diffusione-del-virus-sars-cov-2\/\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/trentinosalutedigitale.com\\\/blog\\\/r0-e-rt-il-contributo-di-fbk-allanalisi-dei-dati-sulla-diffusione-del-virus-sars-cov-2\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/trentinosalutedigitale.com\\\/blog\\\/r0-e-rt-il-contributo-di-fbk-allanalisi-dei-dati-sulla-diffusione-del-virus-sars-cov-2\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Marzia Lucianer\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/trentinosalutedigitale.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/ecfa238c7a61eb5041104458f0cb6bc3\"},\"headline\":\"R0 and Rt: the contribution of FBK to the analysis of data on the spread of the SARS-COV-2 virus\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-06-19T08:23:04+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-08-28T07:39:59+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/trentinosalutedigitale.com\\\/blog\\\/r0-e-rt-il-contributo-di-fbk-allanalisi-dei-dati-sulla-diffusione-del-virus-sars-cov-2\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":450,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/trentinosalutedigitale.com\\\/blog\\\/r0-e-rt-il-contributo-di-fbk-allanalisi-dei-dati-sulla-diffusione-del-virus-sars-cov-2\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/trentinosalutedigitale.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/Merler_Covid19_Data-Analysis.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Covid-19\",\"epidemiologia quantitativa\",\"ISS\",\"Lombardia\",\"pandemia\",\"r0\",\"rt\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Covid19\",\"News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/trentinosalutedigitale.com\\\/blog\\\/r0-e-rt-il-contributo-di-fbk-allanalisi-dei-dati-sulla-diffusione-del-virus-sars-cov-2\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/trentinosalutedigitale.com\\\/blog\\\/r0-e-rt-il-contributo-di-fbk-allanalisi-dei-dati-sulla-diffusione-del-virus-sars-cov-2\\\/\",\"name\":\"R0 and Rt: the contribution of FBK to the analysis of data on the spread of the SARS-COV-2 virus - 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